Rampant forest and land fire has long been a problem that typically present in Indonesia during dry season. Despite significant attention from government by launching National Standard Operating Procedure (SOP): Prevention of Forest and Land Fires in June 2014, existing preparedness system remains the same.
Fire Risk System (FRS) is developed in light of National SOP as well as existing regulations e.g Government Regulation No. 22/2008 that stipulate the need for effective anticipatory, preventive and reinforcement measures to put out fires. In 2014, United Nations Office for REDD+ Coordination in Indonesia (UNORCID - http://www.unorcid.org) and (formerly) BP-REDD+ initiated a collaborative work with Center for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia and Pacific (CCROM-SEAP - http://ccromseap.ipb.ac.id) Bogor Agricultural University to translate potential use of climate information for fire analysis into a web based system called FRS. A whole body of literature published in the last few years indicates that rainfall during dry season in Indonesia (June - October) is particularly critical in determining severity of fires. In addition, rainfall in most areas in Indonesia such as Riau and Central Kalimantan provinces are strongly influenced by El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This put up ENSO indicators such as Sea Surface Temperature in Nino 3.4 or tropical Pacific Ocean as an effective variable for development of advance seasonal forecast of rainfall and fire.
FRS provides fire early warning 1-3 month lead time to allow related agencies initiating critical preparatory action. Advance forecast offers an opportunity to mobilize resources and to implement policies in a timely manner. This would specifically benefit agencies at district and village level which often are running out of time for fire preparedness due to long administrative procedure and only near-term forecast available. FRS can also be useful for practitioners and individuals interested to fire risk analysis. Forecast of fire probability in this system is built upon monitoring of rainfall condition, seasonal rainfall forecasting based on ENSO indicators and fire vulnerability index. Please click here for detailed methodological framework of FRS.